NFL Week 12 Picks

Well I guess there is something to be said about making picks fast and furious. Last week I chose I went 9/14. Not great but when you figure that even Ditka only went 10-4 last week and he’s a Super Bowl winning coach I’d say that’s pretty damn good. Where the biggest wins came from was going against the grain in the Denver vs St. Louis –  Washington vs Tampa Bay and Cleveland vs Houston games. The experts all went with the opposite picks I did except for Ditka in the Denver game. However, in 4 of the games where I went with the underdogs the scores were unbelievably close. The games could have easily swung in the other direction.

In the Atlanta vs Carolina game the final score was 19-17

Kansas City vs Seattle 24-20

San Fran vs New York Giants 16-10

Pittsburgh vs Tennessee 27-24

The Giants ended the game down by 6 points the most of all 6 teams. So this week we are going to see how we do.

So I’m going with the same idea I did last Sunday and I’m picking them the same way

ATL – TB – HOU – IND – GB – NE – PHI – STL – SEA – DEN – SF – NYG – BUF – BAL

I’ve decided that I just don’t care what the experts picked but for the benefits of the readers we will put them up. Plus I’m curious now to see if I’m my picks are way off from what they picked.

 

CLE @ ATL Sun at 1200

ESPN 8 CLE 5 ATL

Machine CLE 65% win probability

Vegas ATL -3

Me ATL

 

TEN @ PHI Sun at 1200

ESPN 13 PHI

Machine PHI 62% win probability

Vegas PHI -11

Me PHI

 

DET @ NE Sun at 1200

ESPN 13 GB

Machine GB 67% win probabilty

Vegas -10

Me GB

Am I picking GB because I am a fan? Well yeah but also cause Rodgers is having one heck of a year. He is easily the front runner for the MVP award. He’s been pulled early in 4 games and his numbers could end very near his 2011 numbers. Had he not been pulled early he probably would have blown those numbers out of the water. So yeah I’m going with the team with the best QB in the league right now.

 

JAX @ IND Sun at 1200

ESPN 13 IND

Machine IND 73% win probability

Vegas IND -14

Me IND

 

CIN @ HOU Sun at 1200

ESPN 6 CIN 7 HOU

Machine HOU 54% win probability

Vegas HOU -1

Me HOU

 

NYJ @ BUF Sun at 1200

ESPN 9 BUF 4 NYJ

Machine BUF 69% probability

Vegas BUF -4.5

Me BUF

 

TB @ CHI Sun at 1200

ESPN 13 CHI

Machine CHI 71% Win probability

Vegas CHI -6

Me TB

 

ARI @ SEA Sun at 305

ESPN 11 SEA 2 ARI

Machine SEA 66% win probability

Vegas SEA -7

Me SEA

 

STL @ SD Sun at 305

ESPN 7 STL 6 SD

Machine SD 62% win probability

Vegas SD -4.5

Me STL

 

MIA @ DEN Sun at 325

ESPN 12 DEN 1 MIA – interesting note here last week Ditka was also the one that picked against the Broncos. I think I’m starting to see a pattern….does Ditka have a grudge against Denver or something…hmmmm

Machine DEN 60% win probability

Vegas DEN -7.5

Me DEN

 

WSH @ SF Sun at 325

ESPN 12 SF

Machine SF 62% win probability

Vegas SF -9

Me SF

 

DAL @ NYG Sun at 730pm

ESPN 10 Dallas 3 NYG

Machine DAL 56% win probability

Vegas DAL -3.5

Me NYG

 

NYJ @ BUF Mon at 7pm

ESPN the big wussies didn’t pick….it shouldn’t matter if a team plays…yeah home field is home field but if a team is good they are good. There is still going to be one loser and one winner and it’s still going to count. It’s not at the end of December the Jets can ask if they can just erase this loss because it was in Detroit and it was a tough game because of the circumstances! Does that mean the entire Saints season in 2005 because the Superdome was unusable?

Machine BUF 69% win probability

Vegas BUF -4.5

Me BUF

 

 

BAL @ NO Mon at 730

ESPN 10 NO 3 BAL

Machine NO 59% win probability

Vegas NO -3.5

Me BAL

 

So we’ll see how I fare this week.

 

Photo credit: Matt McGee / Foter / CC BY-ND

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